Best Forex Trading Platforms For Scalping 2020 Guide

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
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There are some types of the risk management in forex trading.

As you know, every trade on the currency market is exposed to some level of risk. To reduce possible losses and increase the profit, traders use some methods of the risk management.
Previous Analysis: First of all, you should do previous analysis. You need to have the objective reason for the opening of the position. If a trader understands what is going on Forex, he can increase his chances on good profit. Previous analysis consists from the analysis of current news, determining of the High and Low of the day and identifying of the current trend on the long timeframe.
The Creation of the Trading Plan:
The second method is creating and following the trading plan.
Each trader has his own trading strategy. One uses fundamental analysis, another uses technical analysis only and someone uses just his intuition. The difference is in the profit of the strategy for each trader. You can create your own strategy, or use already existing one and adjust it for yourself. The trader can analyze his mistakes and not repeat them in the future, if he uses definite algorithm and follows its rules. What else can help is not to follow the emotions while trading. Any strategy has to be profitable on the long term. It’s better not to start trading on the real account before the trader has good and stable results while using the trading strategy.
How to Manage your Forex Risks :
Determining the percentage of losses is another method of the risk management.
The methods, the essence of which is the valuation of the losses in the trading period, will be more useful. Further, it’s necessary to make the diversification of the trades. It’s not recommended to use more than 5–15% from the total account deposit per one order. One should not forget that many currency pairs correlate with each other.
It’s better to deposit the sum, which is on the free usage.
The next method is the using of the stop losses. You should place the stop when/after opening the order. Usually, this method is not applied while using the scalping strategy. However, trading without stop loss is very dangerous.
Also it’s very important to admit your mistakes. In case you have made some mistakes, you fix the losses and you should analyze the situation. It’s not recommended to try to "outstay" the losses. If the losses are increasing and the price is moving in the opposite direction, it’s better to close the order.
submitted by Sandrainn to investing_discussion [link] [comments]

ROFX.Group

ROFX.Group
https://preview.redd.it/6q30gbl8ikn11.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5522d29a7b2159e73f5612f871f86e9ae43c38aa
Presuming that you have gone through all the basic requirements of what is needed to be a successful forex trader and found that you do not meet any, does that means it’s the end of your investment chances? Of course not because there is a service that lets even the novice and unrefined forex traders invest in the market without the slightest background in it. The ROFX.group for forex trading service will let you invest in this rewarding market with so much simplicity and flexibility that you do not need to do much other than wait for your profits. Beginners finally do not need to invest much mental work into choosing the right broker, installing the right software and trade. You finally do not need to begin the demo trading journey and learn all the details of money management, pair selection and correlation that beginner traders have to go through. This service just lets you invest a certain amount of money and have your profits remitted to you after a team of forex experts working with an AI system have done all the work. You know what that means? Your money grows in a stable and rewarding arrangement and still offers you a guarantee that your money will not shrink. The service offers profits of about 0.5% on average daily.
Artificial Intelligence in a different way
Artificial Intelligence aids with a lot of processes that would take a lot of time to do manually. Lately, these robots can even figure out some patterns that a human eye may have ignored or was just not aware of its existence and meaning. The ROFX.group robot is run by proven forex traders and other scientists who keep on updating its code with the newest trade-sensitive information to ensure that all clients only get the best of the market. You can go on with your business having the confidence that the team will work together to pick the optimal trades and leave out the potential bad eggs that have a high chance of ending up as losing trades.
AI is supervised by an experienced group of in-house forex traders
The AI system has been in operation for almost 10 years and it simply builds on the store of experience that the current team has had through the years. Having an operation style that combines both human input and the AI input irons out all the possibilities of having a computerized system that runs wild and places trades that are mathematically justified but do not fit the current market fundamentals and news.
The RoFx platform is simple to use and does not require setup
One thing you will be glad about after reading this ROFX.group review is that you are closer to a “hands free” investment channel that also has a sleek and simple platform. You can check up your account balance, see your profit history and contact the team of experts only with a few clicks. The platform does not need any downloading and as such, there is no difficult installation process involved. It may sound obvious but a lot of people do not find it easy to install and operate the platforms involved in traditional forex trading. Older systems had icons that needed a person to hoover the mouse over them for them to understand what they mean. The RoFx platform just needs someone to log onto the platform and click anything they want done quick.
No hidden costs and there is coverage
Believe it or not, traditional forex trading still has some costs involved whether you are making profits or not. People need to consider spreads and commissions meant for brokers. The kind of broker chosen also affects how much you pay in spreads and other hidden costs. Requotes have also been a sneaky method through which some brokers ensure that you do not profit out of quick scalp trades. With this service, investors do not get charged for depositing or withdrawing over the contract period and get very good prices for their bitcoin deposits.
You get the very best of protection for money you have deposited and enjoy loss coverage in case you are wondering what happens when the system makes a loss on that day. The service has a vast store of funds to cover for that negative profit for that day in case it occurs at all. Most of all, the money wallet in the service allows for easy transaction making with different deposit options such as bitcoin, bank transfer, VISA and Mastercard. You can make transactions from anywhere using any internet ready device.
submitted by ROFX_user to Daytrading [link] [comments]

How to use a Forex Robot

How to use a Forex Robot
https://preview.redd.it/p9ga08w641121.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2e6efec7a84f437fab19c8d2e65a737bfbc3d38f
What Is an Algorithm or Forex Robot?
In its simplest form, an algorithm is a list of steps needed to solve a problem. When referring to algorithmic trading, we refer to steps written in machine language so that a computer can understand what you want and execute trades on behalf of you and your goals. An algorithm spans multiple functions outside of trading but either way the algorithmis used; it has a clear purpose to help compute large datasets in an efficient manner while abiding by key rules to help ensure the desired outcome. Algorithms accomplish this feat without having to worry about human biases or mental fatigue and high-level and high-frequency decision-making.
-Algorithm Trading Styles
The following list is not inclusive but does cover many commonly used strategies and styles in algorithmic trading:
Mean Reversion: Reverting to the mean takes the idea that an extended move away from a long-term average is likely short-term and due for a reversion or retracement. Algorithms that quantify extended moves based on an oscillator will utilize the average price over a set time and use that level as a target. There many popular tools and calculations for quantifying an extension that is due to revert but risk management must also be included in the algorithm encasing new trend is developing.
Trend following: Trend following is the first, and still very popular technique of algorithmic-based momentum investing. Trends are easy to see, but can be hard to trade without the help of an algorithm. Because algorithms take over for the mind and the minds inherent biases, many of the fears that plague discretionary trend followers do not effect algorithms. A common fear when riding a strong trend is that it is about to turn or end, but that fear is often unfounded. One of the first widely followed trend following algorithms looked to buy a 20-day price breakout and hold that trade until a 20-day price low took them out of the trade. The traders who have and still do employ this algorithmic approach and other similar approaches are often amazed at how long the strongest trends extend that they would have likely exited had their algorithms not managed the trade and exit on their behalf.
News Trading: Another popular style of trading in the archaic world of discretionary trading that now belongs to the Quants is news trading. These strategies scan high important news events and calculate what type of print relative to prior news events and expectations would be needed to place a trade. As you can imagine, the efficiency of receiving the data and calculating whether a trade should be placed in entering that trade is of key focus. This form of algorithmic trading often gets the lion share of media’s attention.
Arbitrage:Arbitrage is a word that has multiple meetings and strategies built around the concept. Historically, you could have euros trading in London at a different price than in New York so that a trader could buy the lower and sell the higher until equilibrium had been established. Nowadays, arbitrage algorithm strategies are more geared to highly correlated assets whose underlying fundamental effects are very similar. When a wide spread in value between the highly correlated assets are recognized, the algorithm will either by the lower and or sell the higher until an equilibrium is met similar to the mean reversion strategy.
High-Frequency Trading and Scalping: For our purposes, will look at these as synonymous even though trading desks and hedge funds view them separately. True high-frequency trading attempts to beat out other traders to the thousand of a second and to do so some firms position their computers next door to an exchange to see in one millisecond faster than a competitor if something is rising by a penny.
Unless you’re looking to buy a house next to the New York Stock Exchange to compete with billion-dollar hedge funds, short-term trading or scalping is likely more up your alley. Even this term has evolved over time whereas traders use to look to make profits on the difference in the bid-ask spread but now has taken a wider meeting for very short-term traits.
For more information about algorithmic trading, click here
submitted by iforexrobot to u/iforexrobot [link] [comments]

ROFX - Review

ROFX - Review
https://preview.redd.it/gq5kmrjkfdn11.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19978f0a54d31140735d7ee27e906381d98d2c6a
Presuming that you have gone through all the basic requirements of what is needed to be a successful forex trader and found that you do not meet any, does that means it’s the end of your investment chances? Of course not because there is a service that lets even the novice and unrefined forex traders invest in the market without the slightest background in it. The ROFX.group for forex trading service will let you invest in this rewarding market with so much simplicity and flexibility that you do not need to do much other than wait for your profits. Beginners finally do not need to invest much mental work into choosing the right broker, installing the right software and trade. You finally do not need to begin the demo trading journey and learn all the details of money management, pair selection and correlation that beginner traders have to go through. This service just lets you invest a certain amount of money and have your profits remitted to you after a team of forex experts working with an AI system have done all the work. You know what that means? Your money grows in a stable and rewarding arrangement and still offers you a guarantee that your money will not shrink. The service offers profits of about 0.5% on average daily.
Artificial Intelligence in a different way
Artificial Intelligence aids with a lot of processes that would take a lot of time to do manually. Lately, these robots can even figure out some patterns that a human eye may have ignored or was just not aware of its existence and meaning. The ROFX.group robot is run by proven forex traders and other scientists who keep on updating its code with the newest trade-sensitive information to ensure that all clients only get the best of the market. You can go on with your business having the confidence that the team will work together to pick the optimal trades and leave out the potential bad eggs that have a high chance of ending up as losing trades.
AI is supervised by an experienced group of in-house forex traders
The AI system has been in operation for almost 10 years and it simply builds on the store of experience that the current team has had through the years. Having an operation style that combines both human input and the AI input irons out all the possibilities of having a computerized system that runs wild and places trades that are mathematically justified but do not fit the current market fundamentals and news.
The RoFx platform is simple to use and does not require setup
One thing you will be glad about after reading this ROFX.group review is that you are closer to a “hands free” investment channel that also has a sleek and simple platform. You can check up your account balance, see your profit history and contact the team of experts only with a few clicks. The platform does not need any downloading and as such, there is no difficult installation process involved. It may sound obvious but a lot of people do not find it easy to install and operate the platforms involved in traditional forex trading. Older systems had icons that needed a person to hoover the mouse over them for them to understand what they mean. The RoFx platform just needs someone to log onto the platform and click anything they want done quick.
No hidden costs and there is coverage
Believe it or not, traditional forex trading still has some costs involved whether you are making profits or not. People need to consider spreads and commissions meant for brokers. The kind of broker chosen also affects how much you pay in spreads and other hidden costs. Requotes have also been a sneaky method through which some brokers ensure that you do not profit out of quick scalp trades. With this service, investors do not get charged for depositing or withdrawing over the contract period and get very good prices for their bitcoin deposits.
You get the very best of protection for money you have deposited and enjoy loss coverage in case you are wondering what happens when the system makes a loss on that day. The service has a vast store of funds to cover for that negative profit for that day in case it occurs at all. Most of all, the money wallet in the service allows for easy transaction making with different deposit options such as bitcoin, bank transfer, VISA and Mastercard. You can make transactions from anywhere using any internet ready device.
submitted by ROFX_user to u/ROFX_user [link] [comments]

Correlations

I bring this to light because 1. A lot(lol) of money was lost and gained on the Euro this week and 2. Because every trader should trade the shit out of correlations.
As most of you know the US Dollar Index is inversely correlated with EUUSD. Similarly, USD/CHF acts in a very similar fashion. I actually cheated a little and shorted swissy instead of even touching the euro after getting blown out of 2 short scalps.
Obviously important areas on D
4H to see things more clearly, added a zone
Two 1H closes (last 2 arrows) below support. first arrow highlights it acting as temporary support which is further entry confirmation when they close below
Many times what is not clear on a certain instrument is VERY clear on a correlated instrument. Hopefully others can chip in with correlations they trade.
Edit: Why futures are better than forex (and thus require more capital)
submitted by HoyES to Forex [link] [comments]

The Forex Correlation Trading strategy 20 forex correlation trading Forex Scalping Strategy based on Currency Correlation Trading Strategies: Forex Trading Correlations What is Forex Scalping and Why I Use It - YouTube Using Correlation in Forex Trading by Adam Khoo - YouTube

Forex Correlation Scalping. The weakest correlation is between EUR/GBP (GBP is the quote currency) and GBP/CHF ... Page 208- Hedge and Correlation correlation trading in forex Strategy Trading Systems. intraday tips for tomorrow nse free A good tip to give here is to consider setting your stop-loss on the winning trade, so they are at least equal to the loss that resulted from the closure of ... Overall, Forex.com is one of the best forex brokers for scalping the market with attractive cash rebates and reduced trading costs. The commission account is very accessible with a minimum deposit of USD 1,000 but for the STP Pro account, the recommended balance is USD 25,000. Scalpers who participate in the active trader program can get reimbursement of all deposits and withdrawal fees for ... Scalping is a popular trading technique in forex trading. It involves the trading of currencies in real time which means that positions are held for very short periods of time. Here, I will present a 1-minute scalping trading technique that you can use for your Forex trading. You may use any currency pair that involves majors for this strategy. What is the Correlation in Forex Trading? The statistical measure of how two different assets move in relation to each other is the correlation in finance. There is a positive correlation between assets tending to move in the same direction. For example, A positive correlation between the value of the Canadian Dollar compared to the U.S. is ... Scalping is a Forex trading style with high efficiency and risks of a neurosurgeon. What is the main charm of scalping? The answer is dynamics. Most traders are attracted by bright, exciting trading and quick profits. If you are among them, then scalping is your method of trading. Scalping is intraday trading. Transactions, as a rule, are opened for a short period, since the purpose of ... Forex Trading Strategy & Education. The Ins and Outs of Forex Scalping. Partner Links . Related Terms. Swing Trading Definition. Swing trading is an attempt to capture gains in an asset over a few ... This forex correlation strategy which you are going to learn here is based on a behavior known as Currency Correlation.. Before I get into the rules of this currency correlation strategy, I will have to explain what currency correlation is for the sake of those that don’t know.. WHAT IS CURRENCY CORRELATION? Currency correlation is a behavior exhibited by certain currency pairs that either ...

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The Forex Correlation Trading strategy

Urban Forex - Urban Towers Scalping Strategy Recap - Duration: 1:05:13. Urban Forex 83,048 views. 1:05:13. Using Correlation in Forex Trading by Adam Khoo - Duration: 15:50. Adam Khoo 72,500 views ... Trading Strategies: Forex Trading Correlations One of, it not the most commonly traded market in the world with around $4 Trillion traded everyday. PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE so we can bring you more ... When currency pairs are correlated, it increases the probability of identifying winning forex trading setups. These are essential Forex trading strategies fo... Want to learn more about scalping? Check out my webinar https://goo.gl/ds8Ngn. Scalping is a simple trading strategy that allows you to minimize the chances ... Visit us at: Discord Channel: https://discord.gg/VkDRPBs Website: www.MastersTradingAcademy.com Forex Scalping Strategy based on Currency Correlation How to ... The important strategy for Forex trading. GOING FOR A MILLION – Live Trading, Robinhood Options, Stock Picks, Day Trading & STOCK MARKET NEWS Stock Market Live 7,320 watching Live now

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